WEEKLY · Gold Weekly
Gold Weekly 2026-W36: A Blowout Payroll Report Cuts the Rally Short
Gold Weekly 2026-W36 (Aug 31-Sep 6)
Sources: LBMA official fixings + Bank of Taiwan gold passbook quotes (in-house gold-pipeline) + World Gold Council (WGC) + US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) + major media compilations Reporting period: August 31 to September 6, 2026 Gold prices trace back to our own pipeline; most are official real prices (LBMA fixings and Bank of Taiwan quotes); payroll industry detail follows BLS / Fox
I. In One Sentence: A Blowout Payroll Number Ends the Rally
It was a "rebound, then rout" week. Weak ADP gave gold only a nudge on Wednesday (Sep 2); on Thursday (Sep 3) it climbed more than 2% past $4,480, helped by dovish Fed Governor Waller, a surging yen that pressed the dollar lower, and Trump's comment that the strike on Iran could be short-lived. But Friday's (Sep 4) August payrolls report blew past consensus, reviving bets on a September Fed hike, and gold fell 2.2% in a single day, giving back most of the week's gain and turning the week negative.
On Thursday (Sep 4) the LBMA PM fixing closed at $4,415.40 (AM $4,466.25); our pipeline spot snapshot was $4,437.50, while Reuters closed at $4,376.04 (single-day -2.2%, weekly roughly -1%). Priced in New Taiwan dollars using Bank of Taiwan quotes (Sep 4): NT$4,570/g, down about 2.7% from last Friday's $4,695/g.
II. The Week in Numbers
International gold price (spot close, USD/oz, in-house pipeline)
| Date | Spot close | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 (Tue) | 4,352.40 | Under pressure; touched about $4,325 intraday |
| Sep 2 (Wed) | 4,369.30 | Small bounce after weak ADP |
| Sep 3 (Thu) | 4,487.40 | Sharp rebound, +2%+ |
| Sep 4 (Fri) | 4,437.50 | Pullback after payrolls |
- LBMA PM fixings for reference: $4,353.15 on Sep 1; $4,415.40 on Sep 4. On a closing basis, Reuters put the spot week around -1%.
- The week's intraday low was about $4,280-4,301 (Sep 3, Forbes $4,283.21), followed by a strong rebound.
Taiwan dollar gold price (Bank of Taiwan passbook, TWD/gram)
| Date | Bank of Taiwan quote (TWD/g) |
|---|---|
| Aug 28 (last Fri) | 4,695.0 |
| Aug 31 (Mon) | 4,562.0 |
| Sep 2 (Wed) | 4,444.0 |
| Sep 3 (Thu) | 4,561.0 |
| Sep 4 (Fri) | 4,570.0 |
- Week's TWD gold: 4,695 → 4,570 last Friday, about -2.7%.
- The TWD traded around 31.6-31.8 all week (31.76 on Sep 4, 31.69 on Sep 5), with limited movement.
III. What Moved the Market: One Better-than-Expected Jobs Report Flipped It
The week's swings were driven almost entirely by US employment data and Fed policy expectations:
- Mon-Wed (Sep 1-2): a hangover from Warsh's hawkish remarks left gold under pressure; on Sep 2 it touched about $4,325 intraday (Kitco), the lowest since Aug 19.
- Wednesday's weak ADP (Sep 2): private payrolls rose just +38,000, below the +47,000 consensus and the weakest since January, setting the table for a bounce.
- Thursday's rebound (Sep 3): Fed Governor Waller struck a dovish tone, saying he would lean toward holding rates at the FOMC if August CPI brought no surprise; the yen surged and pressed the dollar down; and Trump said the strike on Iran could be short-lived, easing oil and energy-inflation worries. Four factors in one day pushed gold up more than 2% to $4,487.
- Friday's blowout payrolls (Sep 4): August nonfarm payrolls +162,000, far above the consensus of roughly +53,000; unemployment held at 4.1%. Per BLS / Fox, manufacturing added about +16,000 while leisure/hospitality and government rebounded. The labour market shifted from the first half's "low-layoff, slow-hiring" pattern to clear improvement, the biggest negative for gold this week.
- A split Fed: Chair Warsh (hawkish debut on Aug 28) versus Governor Waller (dovish). After payrolls, market pricing for a Sep 15-16 hike moved from roughly a coin flip (≈50%) to 60-65% (CME FedWatch, Reuters).
View: This payroll report put "will the Fed hike in September?" back on the table. For a non-yielding asset like gold, firmer hike odds mean a stronger dollar and higher real yields, a direct headwind. But hedging demand and central-bank buying have not disappeared. This week's pullback is more a short-term repricing as the rate channel reasserts itself over safe-haven buying than confirmation of a structural negative.
IV. What the Central Banks Are Doing: 23 Tonnes Bought in July, and Korea Enters for the First Time in 13 Years
- WGC July data: central banks bought a net 23 tonnes. China +20t (21st consecutive month, +60t YTD, total holdings 2,366t or ~8% of reserves, world's sixth largest); Poland +8t (leads YTD at +90t, cumulative 640t moving toward its 700t target, ~28% of reserves); Czech +2t (41st consecutive month).
- Sellers: Russia -6t; Turkey, Jordan, and Uzbekistan -1t each (single-month data).
- Central-bank net purchases are about 130t YTD, below the ~160t of a year earlier; Q2 was a record 289t, the strongest second quarter on record.
- The Bank of Korea made its first gold allocation in 13 years: roughly $250 million via a gold ETF (about 2t), with plans to buy domestically refined gold, aiming to diversify reserves and hedge inflation and geopolitical risk.
- WGC 2026 central-bank survey: 89% of respondents expect global reserves to rise over the next 12 months, and 45% (a record) expect their own holdings to rise; the top reasons are crisis performance, diversification, and inflation hedging.
Central-bank buying remains the structural bid keeping gold near historical highs. It runs on a different timescale from a Fed decision or two: in the short term, the question is whether jobs and inflation let the market keep pricing hikes; over the longer term, it is how much appetite central banks still have for swapping dollar reserves into gold.
V. Other Precious Metals (Sep 4)
- Silver closed near $66.04, -1.2% to -1.4% (it touched $64.74 intraday before recovering; the close was much tamer than the intraday low, per Kitco / FXStreet).
- Platinum -2%, around $1,789.67; palladium near $1,300.
VI. Ahead
- Key watch: the US CPI on Sep 11 (Waller called it the hinge for the September decision) will decide whether gold can hold $4,280-4,320 support.
- Resistance: $4,422-4,465 (near Thursday's rebound high of $4,487); a strong Sep 11 CPI could push price toward $4,223.
- The rate path: the Sep 15-16 FOMC (with updated forecasts) and the Sep 17-18 Bank of Japan meeting (market expects a hike).
- The structural side: central-bank buying and geopolitical risk (the Strait of Hormuz, elevated oil) remain; the medium-term tailwind is not gone because of one down week.
Disclaimer: This weekly is based on LBMA official fixings, Bank of Taiwan gold quotes, and WGC / BLS / major-media compilations. It is for data reference and market observation only and does not constitute investment advice or price forecasts. Gold is volatile; actual moves are driven by many factors.
Sources: LBMA official fixings; Bank of Taiwan gold passbook quotes (in-house gold-pipeline); World Gold Council; US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Reuters; CNBC; Kitco; FXStreet; TechTimes; Fox Business.
Author: Noah ｜ 資產百科專欄
Research & data: Emma (macro researcher), Vera (fact-check)