WEEKLY · Housing Weekly
Taiwan Housing Weekly 2026-W34: June's Falling Volume and Price, and an August Still Waiting
Taiwan Housing Weekly 2026-W34 (Aug 17-23)
Sources: Ministry of the Interior real-price transaction data (real-price registration, open government data) plus major media compilations Reporting period: August 17 to August 23, 2026 Latest complete month: June 2026
I. Nationwide Transaction Snapshot
Recent monthly trend
| Month | Total deals | Median price (NT$10k/ping) | Price YoY | Median total price (NT$10k) | Total price YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02 | 9,869 | 24.6 | -3.5% | 880.0 | -5.9% |
| 2026-03 | 15,458 | 25.4 | -1.6% | 874.4 | -8.0% |
| 2026-04 | 11,500 | 24.2 | -2.8% | 798.0 | -9.3% |
| 2026-05 | 6,975 | 26.1 | +4.8% | 850.0 | -4.9% |
| 2026-06 | 4,405 | 24.6 | -3.9% | 804.8 | -12.1% |
| 2026-07 | 1,597 | 18.0 | — (insufficient data) | 345.0 | — (insufficient data) |
Data notes:
- July 2026 data is only partially disclosed due to reporting lags; the 1,597 deals are not representative of the whole market, so the medians are not used.
- June 2026 is the latest complete month: nationwide normal-transaction median price NT$246,000/ping (down 3.9% YoY), median total price NT$8.05 million (down 12.1% YoY).
- Cumulative database: 4,806,422 records; latest complete quarter is the 2nd quarter of the Republic of China year 115 (Apr-Jun); latest transaction date 2026-07-28.
Key observations
- Volume kept shrinking in June: 4,405 deals, down sharply from the March peak (~15,000); unit price fell 3.9% YoY and total price 12.1% YoY. Total price fell more than unit price, reflecting a mix tilted toward lower-priced properties.
- First-half volume contracted: declining month by month after the March peak, the first half of 2026 shows a consolidation pattern of falling volume and easing prices. The +4.8% YoY in May is short-term noise, not a trend reversal.
- July data still incomplete: the seasonal picture will only become clear once remaining filings land.
II. Ownership Transfers: Six Cities Rebounded in July
- Six-city July ownership transfers of 20,506 units, up 12% MoM and 8.8% YoY, the third straight month of growth (compiled by Sinyi Realty). The market reads this as demand touching bottom after the central bank slightly eased mortgage policy, still led by owner-occupier buyers and staying in a consolidation range.
- Caveat: an alternative reading (Economic Daily News / PTS) notes part of the July surge above 20,000 units reflects a wave of new-project handovers, not purely fresh owner-occupied demand.
- August data not yet out: per convention, the six-city August transfer count is released by each city's land administration bureau in early September. As of this issue (Aug 23) no official August figure is available; we can only note qualitatively that the ghost month (lunar 7th month) historically sees soft demand.
Figures circulating online this week, such as "six-city August transfers of 24,000 units, down 7.6% MoM" or "19,100 units, up 3.7% MoM," were verified to be older years' data (August 2024 and August 2021 respectively), not August 2026, and are not cited here.
III. Six-City Recent Pricing
Median real-price-registration unit prices and YoY change for the two most recent months (May and June 2026):
| City | May deals | May price (NT$10k/ping) | May YoY | Jun deals | Jun price (NT$10k/ping) | Jun YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taipei | 691 | 72.6 | +0.4% | 316 | 85.1 | — |
| New Taipei | 1,168 | 44.4 | +1.8% | 695 | 45.7 | +2.7% |
| Taoyuan | 875 | 25.9 | +1.2% | 661 | 22.0 | -16.3% |
| Taichung | 751 | 27.2 | -4.6% | 474 | 28.7 | +2.1% |
| Tainan | 704 | 19.7 | +5.9% | 577 | 14.4 | -23.8% |
| Kaohsiung | 896 | 25.9 | +10.7% | 622 | 24.8 | +2.5% |
Reading:
- The two Taipei metros held up relatively well: New Taipei's June unit price rose 2.7% YoY, one of the few stable metros; Taipei's June deal count was low (316), limiting the reliability of its price.
- Taoyuan and Tainan posted steep YoY unit-price declines (-16.3%, -23.8%), but sample sizes were small (661 and 577 deals), so this likely reflects a compositional shift toward lower-priced/smaller units rather than across-the-board falls.
- Kaohsiung's May unit price jumped 10.7% YoY, the strongest of the six, then eased to +2.5% in June, a reminder of how volatile the short term is.
- July deal counts fell sharply in every city (Taipei 87, New Taipei 210, Taoyuan 194, Taichung 125, Tainan 209, Kaohsiung 231); data insufficient, medians not used.
IV. Affordability: Official and Academic Estimates
Ministry of the Interior (official, Q1 2026)
- Nationwide mortgage burden ratio 41.46% (up 0.71 percentage points QoQ)
- Price-to-income ratio 9.47x (up 0.15x QoQ)
Academic estimates (2026 reports)
- Price-to-income ratio roughly 10x (well above the generally-reasonable 5-6x)
- Nationwide average mortgage burden ratio around 43%; as high as 67% in Taipei City (nearly two-thirds of income goes to mortgage after purchase)
Academic estimates run a bit higher than official ones, mainly due to differing baselines (median vs average, inclusion of parking/near-completion units). Burden is heavy across the board, especially in the two Taipei metros, a structural issue that short-term policy easing will not materially relieve.
V. Supply Side: Fewer New Permits, Concentrated Handovers
- Building permits (new-supply momentum): first-half 2026 residential units permitted at 50,723, down 28.2% YoY, the lowest for the period since 2018 (developers pulling back; Taichung down by half).
- Completion permits (handover volume): first-half residential completions of 68,225 units, the second-highest for the period in a decade (driven by the prior wave of pre-sale handovers).
- Reading: the market shows a structure of "fewer new permits, concentrated handovers" side by side, meaning the pipeline of new supply is weakening while earlier pre-sale units are entering completion densely.
VI. Special Market Observations
- Pre-sale cancellations climbing: cumulative nationwide pre-sale cancellations in the first seven months topped 3,000 cases (~3,066), up more than 80% from a year earlier.
- More consumers expect price declines: Yongqing Housing's Q2 2026 online-member survey shows the share expecting lower prices rising to 42% (a specific broker's member poll, not all buyers).
- Central bank eases lending curbs: the second-home loan ratio was raised from 50% to 60% in 2026, and the resale-recognition window for trade-up buyers extended to 18 months. Experts assess this as "more symbolic than substantive."
- Regional cases: in April, roughly 816 pre-sale sites in Taichung sold only 366 units (about 0.4 units per site), with roughly 80% of sites seeing zero sales; some Shueinan sites offered a "price-protection, refund the difference" guarantee (average around NT$680,000/ping). Kaohsiung saw about 677 pre-sale deals from January through April, roughly 30% of the 2024 peak.
VII. Data Notes and Limitations
- The latest complete month is June 2026; July 2026 data is insufficient (only 1,597 deals) and the median is not representative, so it is not used.
- Transfer counts and real-price-registration records are two different statistics: the former are land-office buy/sell transfer registrations, the latter are reported transaction cases; the figures are not directly comparable.
- Broker/media figures use inconsistent bases: all news data here carries its source and timing; readers should keep this in mind when quoting.
- Single-month swings need a longer lens: review trends by quarter to avoid misreading monthly seasonality or policy timing.
- Medians exclude special transactions such as between relatives, using only normal transactions.
VIII. Outlook for Next Week
- Six-city August transfer data is expected in early September from each city's land administration bureau, allowing us to see whether the ghost month actually dragged on demand.
- July 2026 real-price-registration data will fill in as filings land, gradually clarifying the summer trend.
- Whether the "fewer new permits, concentrated handovers" pattern persists will shape second-half prices and clearance pressure.
Disclaimer: This weekly is based on publicly available Ministry of the Interior real-price-registration data and major media compilations. It is provided for data reference and market observation only and does not constitute investment advice or price forecasts. Real-estate transactions are case-specific; actual prices are shaped by multiple factors including location, product type, and transaction terms.
Sources: Ministry of the Interior Real-Price Registration Query System, city land administration bureaus, Sinyi Realty, Jhongshan/Huasin institutions, Ministry of the Interior real-estate information platform, Economic Daily News, Central News Agency, udn.